Markets Are Hedging Against a Hawkish Pivot Today

1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday could have been attributed to hedging activity., we could see that usual volatility crush at around 2:35 PM ET. That is typically when the S&P 500 rallies and everyone starts to comment about the market, with Powell having a dovish tone. Even though we know that the rally has nothing to do with Powell the passing of the event risk as the VIX 1 Day drops like a stone and heads lower.

Anyway, the S&P 500 finished yesterday down 1.6ish% and is pretty close to breaking the lower bound of a bear flag formed over the last several trading sessions. If the flag is punctured today, then there is a good chance the next stop could be in the 4,700’s.) is in the S&P 500, its results tonight could impact the market. The stock is down about 8%, following the results. The market was pricing in a nearly 13% move in either direction.

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