Analysis-Powell's soothing tone may not be enough for inflation-spooked markets

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Islanders flock to Charlottetown Flea Market for affordable finds amid rising costs | SaltWireNEW YORK - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's reassuring message following the central bank’s monetary policy meeting may not calm frazzled U.S. stock and bond investors, as uncertainty over the path of inflation intensifies the focus on upcoming data.

Market swings on Wednesday reflected investors’ nervousness: the S&P 500 closed down 0.3% following a rally that saw it gain more than 1% during Powell’s press conference. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to prices, dropped nearly 10 basis points. Bond investors have been struggling for months, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 70 basis points year-to-date.

Some investors fear the clock may be running out for the Fed to cut rates, though it's relatively early in the year. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T Rowe Price, believes the Fed will need to have at least three months of weaker-than-expected data to be confident enough to cut rates. He was also bullish on Treasuries that would likely benefit from a flight-to-quality bid in case “of a stumble in the economy down the road,” he said.

 

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