Donald Trump being re-elected US president would arguably be the biggest disruption to the global economy. Photography Win McNamee / POOL / AFP
As Dublin threatens to rewrite existing laws to facilitate deporting immigrants back to the UK and Sunak says he is not going to accept them “when the EU doesn’t accept returns back to France”, this could get worse before it gets better. Not least with former UK cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg suggesting illegal immigrants could be bussed “to facilities near the Irish Border” presumably to encourage the flow.
On the upside, Sunak, now seemingly a busted flush electorally, is likely to be replaced by Keir Starmer whose Labour Party remains opposed to the Rwanda plan. Still, having a Common Travel Area and two separate immigration policies isn’t going to be straightforward.The possibility of Donald Trump being returned to the White House in November could have seismic consequences for global trade, which as a small, export-orientated economy Ireland is exposed to.
Such a move has the potential to trigger the biggest trade war in history and the biggest check on the globalisation to date. The US has haemorrhaged manufacturing jobs over the last three decades, losing close to five million since 2000. The decline has been unprecedented by US standards and has created, or at least compounded, what’s often referred to as a Rust Belt, from the midwest to the Great Lakes.
“Should tensions in the region escalate further, major trading disruptions and impediments to oil supplies could push up energy prices and freight costs in the near term, disrupting global trade,” he said. ECB policymakers have also been citing elevated inflation in the services sector linked to catch-up wage demands as a problem area. If anything the disinflationary path promises to be bumpy rather than smooth.