Sorry, Ottawa, but magical thinking won’t fix the economy

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The Liberal government hopes that the country’s falling per capita GDP will reverse itself all on its own

The Liberals whipped out a magic wand in the spring budget, waving away concerns about Canada’s surging population outstripping economic growth.

Not to worry, the Trudeau government says … the economy will balance itself. The decline in real per capita GDP is “largely temporary, not systemic” and will rebound as immigrants’ earnings rise, as they have in the past. A carefully designed immigration policy could maximize the chances of such a happy outcome, but current trends are hardly encouraging.

It’s a complex set of numbers, but it boils down to this: Ottawa has made the choice to select lower-scoring immigrants who fit into specialized niches in the economy rather than those who, according to Canada’s own immigration system, have a better chance of long-term success. But there remains the question of what to do with temporary migrants already in Canada. Mr. Miller has talked about creating “a pathway for those who are in the country who wish to stay and contribute to the country and to the economy.”

 

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