The biggest risk for policy, however, stems from national politics in France and Germany. The results are clear. By a huge margin, thecentre-right European People’s Party will be the strongest political group in the next European Parliament, gaining almost 26% of the seats. Greens and Liberals were the biggest losers. At the same time, both right-wing and nationalist party groups gained seats.
In Germany, Olaf Scholz’s party only gained 14% of the votes, while in France, Emmanuel Macron’s party gained 15%. Huge disappointments. In Germany, the government coalition got less than 30% of the vote. Snap elections still look unlikely but more tensions within the coalition, most noticeable in the current budget talks, will add to policy uncertainty and also political disappointments.