There are two distinct views on what a second Donald Trump presidency would mean to the global economy.magazine that he had “the greatest economy in history” during his first time running the United States. A second term would be a chance to “rebuild the greatest economy in history”.
He has promised a 10 per cent tariff on imports from all nations and a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China, but he has also left open the door to even higher imposts. Those tax cuts also contained Trump’s sharp reduction in the business tax rate. His business supporters are also keen to see the corporate rate reduced even further, to around 18 per cent.Until the COVID-19 pandemic, the American economy under Trump was flying – due in part to falling interest rates . That was vital, as Trump paid no heed to the state of his budget.
Trump has said he will undertake mass deportations of “illegal” migrants, many of whom work in the construction, agricultural and services sector.interview, Trump said there were between 15 million and 20 million illegal migrants within the US, with “many of them from jails, many of them from prisons, many of them from mental institutions”.According to Trump, he will shift these people back to their nation of origin . Legal immigration would also be made more difficult.
Under “limited Trump”, which assumes the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, higher government spending, reduced immigration and targeted tariffs on China and Europe, real economic growth is about 0.6 per cent higher by 2027. According to Oxford, if China restricted its tourists from heading to the United States, reduced spending in America by these tourists would amount to almost $US12 billion in 2026 and reach about $US16 billion by 2023.
Expert economic modeller Warwick McKibbin says there is a chance of a financial crisis due to Trump’s policy agenda.He says that work suggests Trump’s planned tariffs on China have a direct, negative impact on Australia, with the economic output permanently reduced by 0.3 per cent of GDP, or $8 billion a year.But Trump’s actions beyond tariffs could have much more far-reaching economic consequences.
A growing concern is whether Trump, who has long advocated low interest rates, will interfere in the operation of the Federal Reserve.earlier this year reported that Trump allies were arguing for the president to have the final say on rate settings.