The baby bust: how Britain’s falling birthrate is creating alarm in the economy

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Costs, the climate crisis and choice are all factors in a demographic revolution presenting huge challenges for government

Babies in a hospital nursery. In 2022 the fertility rate across England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman.Babies in a hospital nursery. In 2022 the fertility rate across England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman.Having children has become an unaffordable luxury for many of her generation, says Vanessa, a 35-year-old project manager living in Brighton.

As a benchmark, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says that to maintain a population, the “replacement rate”, often known as the “R-rate”, needs to be at least 2.1 children per woman. According to the latest data, half of women born in 1990 were childless by their 30th birthday – the first generation for which that is true., including Vanessa, to say why they had not had children, or had restricted the size of their family, most replied that financial constraints were the main reason.

In the UK and France, these subsidies were scaled back after the recessions of 2008-09. Austerity across all public services was the message from Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president from 2007 to 2012, and from the UK ’s coalition government from 2010 to 2015. To measure growth, the report used national income per capita, which has improved in Japan while the overall economy has stagnated. Japan’s fertility rate is 1.3, just ahead of Italy’s 1.2 and South Korea’s 0.8.The consultancy’s director, Erik Britton, says the research is ongoing and the conclusions only tentative, but the initial findings reveal that government support, while a necessary element, might not be the most important factor.

“These days women say they have no obligation to reproduce and ‘I’m not going to have a baby who turns my life upside down’,” says Harper, who advised the David Cameron’s government on the implications of an ageing society.The Treasury’s independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility , says falling birthrates are going to have a negative effect on tax receipts. That is a situation that is not necessarily solved by higher immigration.

Pupil numbers had grown because of a fertility surge in the 00s, but that cohort has moved through primary and on to secondaries, leaving empty seats in their wake.Looking ahead, even with real terms increases in per-pupil funding over the remainder of the decade, the EPI predicts that many schools will suffer funding cuts due to fewer pupils causing income to fall, though costs will remain high.

 

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