While crypto policy has become an important issue amid the U.S. presidential campaign in recent months, blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket are making election markets more efficient, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein in a note to clients on Monday.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra said it was impressive that Polymarket abstracts away the complexity of the blockchain user experience, making it more similar to a traditional tech product. Polymarket odds are now being quoted as the “default” by the media in calling election dynamics.
“The value for a Biden share has dramatically declined by more than 50% from 39 cents just a month back to 18 cents today. Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama are the next biggest markets with 5 cents and 4 cents, signifying a 5% and 4% chance respectively,” Chhugani and Sapra said.The second-largest pool is “Who will be the Democratic nominee for President?” with $71 million in bets.
Finally, “Will Biden drop out of the Presidential race?” is the fourth-largest pool, attracting $8.8 million in bets so far. “The 'Yes' chances are 41%, which dramatically shot up from 20% chances post the June 27 debate,” Chhugani and Sapra wrote.Crypto policy heats up as U.S. election issue
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