Already a subscriber?Brokers are warning that the plunge in lithium is not yet baked into stock prices, spelling more trouble for the Australian sharemarket’s worst performers over the last year.
But analysts have warned that the beaten-down lithium shares still look expensive, with UBS estimating that equities are pricing in spodumene at around $US1200 to $US1480 a tonne, which is well above spot prices.And investors agree, with Pilbara Minerals, Liontown Resources, and Sayona Mining all among the benchmark index’s 10 most shorted stocks.
Wood Mackenzie believes the oversupplied market will keep lithium prices under pressure until 2028, when its analysts expect spodumene to bottom at around $US1000 a tonne.Expectations of a prolonged downturn have already forced some producers to cut costs and raise capital just to stay afloat. “Because there’s been such a massive increase in supply over the past three years, a lot of that has been quite high cost, but as the industry matures, you’re seeing more production come on towards the bottom end of the cost curve,” said Sam Berridge, portfolio manager and resources specialist at Perennial Funds Management.“And so those high-cost projects will just get pushed off the end of the cost curve and prices will come down to a point where they become sub-economic.
Indeed, global EV sales expectations have been hit by high interest rates, a lack of charging infrastructure and limited product options for consumers, which has caused Citi’s global auto team to downgrade their EV adoption forecasts twice in the last nine months.