Morning Bid: Growth ebbs, curves steepen, Powell in Portugal

Further signs of a cooling U.S. economy greet the second half of 2024, with politics dominating headlines on both sides of the Atlantic and Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell due to speak later on Tuesday.

While that should encourage hopes for Fed easing this year, there are still some doubts about whether the central bank will execute its first cut before November's election. Futures price less than a 70% chance of a first cut in September. The fiscal implications of all that are starting to unnerve long-term Treasuries, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting their highest in a month on Monday and the inverted yield curve spread from 2 years to 10 years narrowing to lowest since early May.That fiscal concern and related curve steepening was also evident in Europe, with the outcome of the French election still in the balance ahead of Sunday's second round.

Stock markets around the world were lower, including in China after a mixed bag of corporate surveys this week.

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