Forget the UK general election. The poll that financial markets will be watching most closely over the next few days is the second round parliamentary 'run-off' in France this Sunday. The French poll is unpredictable, to say the least. The first round of voting last week raised the prospect of a hung parliament and prompted a relief rally in French assets on Monday this week.
There has also been a sell-off in French government bonds - reflecting concerns that a high-spending RN or NPF government would increase borrowing. The yield on 10-year French government bonds jumped from 3.118% on the day before Mr Macron called the election to as much as 3.373% on Tuesday this week. And the premium that investors demand for holding 10-year French government bonds over their German equivalent surged from 47.61 basis points before Mr Macron called the election to as much as 85.