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PHL economy could grow 6.2% this year as external sector rebounds, says BMI

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THE Philippine economy could post a growth of 6.2 percent this year on the back of the rebound of the country’s external sector, according to a UK-based think tank. BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company, said this estimate is within the government’s 6 to 7 percent growth target in 2024.

Commercial and residential buildings rise in this skyline of Metro Manila as residential houses are seen in foreground.

“While headline growth figures showed a slight increase, this is by no means an accurate representation of the economy’s health. A more detailed breakdown suggests that underlying domestic demand has softened even though the external sector showed some tentative signs of rebound,” BMI said. Still, BMI said this could be the “trough” in spending and that the estimates of higher imports indicated recovery in private consumption.

The BSP has raised interest rates by 450 basis points since May 2022. This placed the country’s key policy rates at 6.5 percent, the highest in over 17 years. The think tank said interest rate cuts in the US will pave the way for a rebound in the peso from the current spot rate of P58.7 to the greenback.

 

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