, which clears US President Donald Trump of criminal conspiracy charges . Now that the Russia investigation is over, Trump may avoid issuing destabilising statements that could rattle the stock market, given that it is a key benchmark by which he judges his own success.
Second, there are heightened risks associated with the scale and composition of US corporate-sector debt, owing to the prevalence of leveraged loans, high-yield junk bonds, and “” firms whose bonds have been downgraded from investment-grade to near-junk status. Moreover, the commercial real-estate sector is burdened with overcapacity, as developers overbuilt and e-commerce sales have undercut demand for brick-and-mortar retail space.
Fifth, European growth is very fragile and could be hindered by any of a number of developments, from a strong showing by populist parties in the upcoming European Parliament elections to a political or economic. This would come at a time when monetary and fiscal stimulus in the eurozone is constrained and eurozone integration is stalled.
Seventh, Trump may react to the Mueller report with bluster, not prudence. With an eye to the 2020 presidential election, he could double down on his fights with the Democrats, launch new salvos in the trade war, stack the Fed Board with unqualified cronies, bully the Fed to cut rates, or precipitate another government shutdown over the debt ceiling or immigration policy.