China's economy hit the brakes even before the new Trump tariffs

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Having stabilised earlier in the year, China's domestic and export economies have again got the wobbles, prompting speculation another round of stimulus will be needed before the new US tariffs bite.

China's economy appears to have slowed abruptly, even before the recent escalation of trade hostilities with the US.Retail sales, industrial production and infrastructure investment in April were all much weaker than expected

Housing-related consumption — including furniture, home appliances and construction & decoration material — slowed dramatically, as did sales of clothes, phones and cosmetics. Tens of millions of vacant apartments potentially pose a much greater long-term risk to China's economy than US tariffs, writes Michael Janda."During the same period, growth of developers' funding, which holds the key to property investment, also jumped to 8.9 per cent year-on-year, the fastest in 20 months, as bank loans, advance payments, and mortgages grew at a quicker pace," Ms Wang said.

Ms Wang said Chinese policymakers will more likely favour targeted monetary policies, industrial subsidies, and fiscal policy — including more tax cuts — to counter the mounting risks to growth. The big investment bank Citi said the new regime of tariffs will lop around 0.5 percentage points off Chinese GDP, cut exports by 2.7 per cent and see more than 2 million Chinese workers lose their jobs.

 

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...artificial stimulus in China has required incrementally more for incrementally less gain; with the bulk of the stimulus flowing into zombie SOE's and other poor economic returning investments/entities a collapse is inevitable...we await...

Printing money only gets you so far, and it will come back to bite you.

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