The inverted yield curve makes the tail-risks facing the economy much worse, according to Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s market chief, in a blog post Tuesday.
There is a 5% probability that U.S. GDP will shrink 4.6% or more four quarters from now, the models show.
gawd i'd love to see how these odds are calculated 😂
You don’t feel remotely embarrassed for reporting this
...so lemme do the math...there is a 95% chance it doesnt go into a tailspin. Got it.
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