The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, July 4, 2019. REUTERS/Staff
German 10-year bond yields fell below the ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate for the first time, the whole U.S. curve yields less than the Fed’s 2.5% target rate and Britain’s 10-year gilt yield is below its central bank rate too. It starts at 1600 GMT and given the backdrop of record-high U.S. stock markets plus strident calls for interest-rate cuts from President Donald Trump, he will be walking a fine line.
There will be investment numbers, bank lending figures, retail sales and trade data. The last of those could show an improved surplus simply because of a steeper drop in imports, as suggested by another lead indicator — South Korea’s exports. Most investors are circumspect on where the talks go from here but the data deluge will them an give an up-to-date reading of the impact of tensions so far.Europe’s corporate earnings season is just around the corner and having seen profits shrink in the first quarter, the hope is Q2 will have brought a return to growth.
Recent data showed heavyweight funds yanked some $13.8 billion out U.S. stocks over the past week. Europe’s economy has also begun surprising to the upside whereas the U.S. economy has underwhelmed. The gap between euro zone and U.S. economic surprises on Citi’s widely-watched index is the widest it’s been in two years.Traders are looking for signs whether Britain’s dismal PMI releases are filtering through to weaker economic growth.