While one Iranian tanker is attracting global attention, serious oil watchers remain absorbed by a bigger mystery: the hunt for the rest of Iran’s fleet.
After tearing up a previous accord on Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. President Donald Trump is squeezing trade to pressure Tehran into accepting a different deal. The clash has triggered a range of hostilities, from the targeting of Saudi oil tankers to the shooting down of an American spy drone. It’s also captivated crude traders, hungry for insights that could influence global prices.
Iran is now barely shipping a third of the amount it sold during the previous round of sanctions imposed earlier this decade, Gerber said. Some other estimates have been inflated because they include all the oil that’s been loaded onto tankers, or put into domestic storage, rather than just what’s been shipped overseas, he said.
Iran is employing a range of techniques to try to avoid detection, including “several ship-to-ship transfers off-radar,” according to Kpler analyst Samah Ahmed.