How stories can help explain booms and busts

  • 📰 TheEconomist
  • ⏱ Reading Time:
  • 42 sec. here
  • 2 min. at publisher
  • 📊 Quality Score:
  • News: 20%
  • Publisher: 92%

Finance Finance Headlines News

Finance Finance Latest News,Finance Finance Headlines

In a new book, Robert Shiller says it matters which kinds of narratives are contagious, and why

, or thinks they know, the story of the Wall Street shoeshine boy. In 1929 Joseph Kennedy, patriarch of the Boston-Irish political clan, had an epiphany while his shoes were being cleaned. When the boy who shined his shoes offered him stock tips, he realised the stockmarket was about to implode. Kennedy promptly sold all his shares and took a short position, betting that the market would fall. When it crashed that October he made a killing.

To wield such influence, economic narratives must first become popular. Epidemiology offers a model for how they take hold. Disease epidemics are hump-shaped when plotted on a graph. In the rising phase, the rate of increase of newly infected people is faster than the recovery rate plus the death rate. When the recovery rate exceeds the contagion rate, the epidemic falls off. It is the same with stories.

Some of the most contagious narratives are newer, more resistant variants of old ones. Behind every property boom is a mutation of the eternal narrative about the scarcity value of land. “Who could think of tilling or being contented with a hundred acres of land, when thousands of acres in the broad west were waiting for occupants,” says a tract documenting the follies of America’s land boom of the 1830s.

 

Thank you for your comment. Your comment will be published after being reviewed.
Please try again later.

WHEN FASCISM DRESSES 'PROGRESS ' : Facebook-Apple-Microsoft-Google-Twitter-Yahoo-Youtube-Tinder... TAX EVASION & THEFT OF PERSONNAL DATA... ARE SOCIAL CRIMES : fewer collective, educational & environmental projects, more misery & environmental disasters, more SPYING & REPRESSION

It is all about the narrative. This is true from capital markets explaining compliance to a regulator. And this is true on the quantum level where an observation actually affects the observed. We are what we tell ourselves, for better or worse.

Funny way to spell impending global recession. (Which will be a nice precursor to digital-only currency that has added carbon taxes on at transaction level. Just my little prophecy.)

如果我能够成为涉及朝鲜贸易公司和支付公司的总裁企业家时候,我公开向美国要求提名我诺贝尔奖,

Our mission at is to build the social media platform that ends fake news

the story is that capitalism routinely crashes every decade. the end

Austrian business cycle theory of GTFO

We have summarized this news so that you can read it quickly. If you are interested in the news, you can read the full text here. Read more:

 /  🏆 6. in FİNANCE

Finance Finance Latest News, Finance Finance Headlines