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US disinflation could be drowned out by European politics

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Politics,Macroeconomics,Inflation

Were it not for events in Europe, FX markets would now be focusing on the welcome disinflation in the US and the prospects of a softer dollar.

As it is, President Macron’s gamble has added some unexpected volatility into European currencies - likely to keep risk appetite in check. If the dollar is to go lower, it will be non-European currencies that prosper. EUR/USD: Fed convergence trade faces French politics It has been a struggle, but it is starting to look like investors are swinging behind Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The case against is that the SNB is not sounding as dovish as it once was and is in no hurry. It looks like we’ll see a 0.96-0.99 range now, with the SNB using FX intervention on both sides of the market. Source: Refinitiv, ING forecasts EUR/NOK: A major winner in the risk-on rally The Norwegian krone remains uniquely positioned to benefit from more drops in USD rates and improvements in risk sentiment. The chances of a move below 11.30 this summer have increased after the latest US CPI report.

 

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