Betting Markets Swing Toward Trump, Forecasting Tightening Race

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However, there’s reason to doubt the accuracy of abrupt changes in betting markets.

The president’s betting odds improved after four large bets of over $13,000 were placed on him in the last several days. , where he traded at 49% — just one point behind Biden — after trailing by 28% just one month ago. , where he traded at 57 cents on Wednesday compared to Trump’s 47 cents, though the odds have narrowed in recent weeks.

Polls provide a snapshot in time by experts interviewing a sample size of respondents, while betting markets reflect the wagers random people place on peer-to-peer platforms hoping to guess right on outcomes in the future. Polling analysts say betting markets are fallible because they’re only as accurate as the random people putting money into them. However,

 

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