Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing, the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, in the Hart Building in Washington, D.C., on March 7, 2023. from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.system that really says to look at the short — the first 18 months — of the yield curve," Powell said in March 2022. "That's really what has 100% of the explanatory power of the yield curve.
Fed officials are in the midst of the most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, raising interest rates nine consecutive times as they try to crush inflation still running about three times higher than the pre-pandemic average.The inversion came just one day after the Fed delivered another, lifting the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since 2007.
However, many investors are skeptical and believe that lagging economic growth could force the Fed to reduce rates before next year. The probability that the Fed cuts rates in July rose to 79% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks trading. Steeper interest rates, combined with turmoil within the banking sector, have drastically raised the bets of a recession this year on Wall Street."The probability of the Fed sticking the landing on this without causing a recession, increasing unemployment and preventing further consolidation in the domestic banking sector would appear to be quite low," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said Wednesday.
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