Morning Bid: Banks queue round the block at Fed discount window

It's been a slow day in Asian markets, no doubt with everyone tired and emotional after another rough week.edged up to a still-contractionary 48.6, while services fared a bit better at 54.2. Analysts suspect a recession is still likely, but that's hardly a novelty for Japan.CPI

growth slowed to 3.3% y/y as expected thanks to government subsidies on energy, but inflation ex-food and energy climbed to its highest since 1982 at 3.5%. Normally that might add to pressure for the BOJ to water down its yield curve control, but it's also less of a burning issue given the recent plunge in global bond yields.

It was notable that U.S. two-year Treasuries kept almost all of their massive gains with yields at 3.82%, having fallen an astonishing 126 basis points in 11 sessions and crushed a host ofThe whole yield curve from one month to 30 years is now below the overnight Fed rate, which is something you see only once in a very blue moon. While the 2-10 curve has dis-inverted markedly, that's not a sign recession is less likely.

Fed futures are currently 65% for no hike in May and 85% for a rate cut in July, a U-turn that the Fed is surely hoping to avoid. And it would be extremely unlikely were it just down to inflation and the economy. But there's the banks.

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