shows just how resilient the jobs market, and therefore economy, continues to be, with 228,000 in claims falling from the week prior and well below economist forecasts of 242,000. global macro strategist Sonu Varghese, the resilient economy means there is no recession in sight and a so-called"soft landing" may not even be necessary.
Looking at the last three months of economic data, Varghese highlighted three data points that suggest the economy is likely to remain stronger than many expect and ultimately avoid a recession.Retail sales rose at an annualized pace of 4.7% in the second-quarter, and retail sales excluding vehicle and gas station sales rose at a 6.3% annual pace.
"Production of business equipment outside of vehicles and high-tech also looks to have bottomed, which is a positive sign for Capex," Varghese said.Single-family housing permits jumped 11% in the second-quarter, while an index that measures homebuilder sentiment continues to move higher, Varghesi observed. That suggests"Meanwhile, total housing units under construction are near an all-time record.
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