Everyone is overlooking a very big wildcard about Lyft, Uber and all the other gig-economy IPOs

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The Lyft IPO has investors excited, but these kinds of businesses aren't proven to be recession-proof.

Ives says he believes we could be in for a"slower demand cycle" over the next 12 to 18 months, though he thinks the economy will likely dodge a full blown recession.

This scenario views services like Lyft and Uber as essential staples of everyday life. Unlike"discretionary" goods that people decide they can do without during tough economic times, ride-sharing has become a critical means of transportation. "A bus might be more economic, but if you need to get to work quickly, that 30 minutes might be worth a few more bucks," says Kim.As people lose their jobs in a recession , the gig-economy could provide a sort of safety net for the unemployed to earn cash and try to make ends meet.Drivers are already protesting because of the price cuts that Uber and Lyft have rolled out. A flood of new drivers could push prices down to rock-bottom levels.

 

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